Redefining Efficiency: Beyond Compute-Optimal Training to Predict Language Model Performance on Downstream Tasks

Artificial intelligence scaling laws guide the development of Large Language Models (LLMs), facilitating the understanding of human expression. Current research explores the gaps between scaling studies and LLM training, predicting down-stream task performance. Experimentation with different models determines the predictability of scaling in over-trained regimes. This work contributes to scaling laws’ potential and future development focus.

 Redefining Efficiency: Beyond Compute-Optimal Training to Predict Language Model Performance on Downstream Tasks

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Scaling Laws in Artificial Intelligence

In artificial intelligence, scaling laws serve as useful guides for developing Large Language Models (LLMs). These laws coordinate models’ growth, revealing development patterns that go beyond mere computation. With each step forward, these models become more sophisticated, unlocking the intricacies of human expression with careful accuracy.

However, there are gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. Training LLMs are expensive, and often over-trained to reduce inference costs and compare them based on downstream task performance.

Practical Solutions and Value

Researchers have experimented with creating a testbed of models with various parameters and training data to determine when scaling is predictable in the over-trained regime. This has helped predict the validation loss of different parameter and token runs, providing insights into the performance of larger models.

It has been observed that scaling laws can effectively forecast the performance of larger models subject to more extensive over-training, providing valuable insights for model development and evaluation.

Efficiency and Performance Prediction

This research efficiently handles both the topics: scaling in the over-trained regime and downstream performance prediction. It shows that the loss scaling behavior of models trained past compute-optimal in the overtrained regime is predictable. Also, using the proposed scaling law, one can predict the downstream average task performance of more expensive runs using smaller-scale proxies.

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