The article discusses using data science to calculate the probability of being alive at the end of the world, based on historical human birth rates and population data. By leveraging the SciPy library, the project fills in data gaps and interpolates population estimates to derive a 7.5% likelihood of being present to witness the end of the world.
**Quick Success Data Science**
### *If the World Ends, What’s the Likelihood You Witnessed It?*
#### Interpolating data gaps with SciPy
*Image by Hugo Jehanne on Unsplash*
In this Quick Success Data Science project, we’ll use Python to calculate the probability of being alive now by estimating the total number of individuals who have ever lived. As part of the process, we’ll use the SciPy library’s valuable interpolate module, which helps address a common data science problem: gaps within datasets.
**The Process**
To calculate the probability of being alive right now, we need the following inputs:
1. The year humanity “started.”
2. The size of the population at various periods.
3. The average birth rate over those same periods.
4. The current population
**The Year Humanity Started**
We’ll use a starting date of 192,000 years before the present to focus on anatomically modern humans.
**Population Size Through Time**
Estimating the size of the human population in prehistoric times is both an art and a science. We’ll use estimates compiled by the Gapminder Foundation and end in 2022.
**Birth Rates Through Time**
We’ll use birth rate estimates from the Population Reference Bureau, and fill the gaps using the SciPy library.
**The Current Population**
For the current global population, we’ll use the 2022 United Nations estimate of 8 billion people.
**SciPy Interpolate Module**
The SciPy interpolate module provides various interpolation techniques for smoothing or estimating values between a set of data points, such as our population estimates.
**Calculating the Number of People Ever Born**
We’ll use historical birth rates to calculate the number of people born each year.
**What are the Chances?**
The probability of being alive now is approximately 7.5%, equivalent to 1 in 13.
**Summary**
If the world ends tomorrow, the likelihood of you being present to witness it stands at 7.5%, equivalent to 1 in 13.
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